Aurora Energy Research, a global provider of energy market analytics, has announced the launch of its India Grid Service, a first-of-its-kind subscription service that helps the power industry forecast renewable energy curtailment risk and assess grid connectivity across India’s electricity grid.
Launching first in Rajasthan, the service will expand across Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu over the following year, covering more than 80 per cent of India’s renewable energy development pipeline, a release by Aurora Energy Research said.
The launch comes as India’s electricity grid struggles to keep pace with the rapid growth of renewable energy. Renewable energy curtailment has risen from 0.07 TWh in January 2025 to 2.68 TWh in May 2026 as grid infrastructure has struggled to keep up, the release pointed out.
The India Grid Service builds on Aurora’s global grid modelling expertise, extending its proven methodology from more than ten international power markets to support India’s rapidly expanding renewable energy sector.
Growing RE curtailment
The impact is already becoming evident in key renewable markets. Around 12 GW of renewable capacity across Rajasthan and Gujarat faces curtailment of up to 100 per cent due to delayed transmission infrastructure, leading to increased uncertainty for investors and making it harder for developers to predict project performance. The issue has also become a growing financial and policy concern, with credit rating agencies warning that curtailment could affect more than 35 GW of renewable capacity by FY27 and regulators already considering compensation claims from developers affected by transmission delays.
Node-level forecasts
As transmission constraints become a greater consideration for renewable energy investment, Aurora’s India Grid Service provides node-level forecasts of curtailment risk, available grid capacity and transmission connectivity. Built on more than 10,000 hours of research and validated against Rajasthan’s 2025 historical curtailment data, where it achieved 97 per cent back-cast accuracy, it helps developers, lenders and power buyers assess potential constraints before investment decisions are made.
Towards clearer understanding of risks
Debabrata Ghosh, Country Head, India at Aurora Energy Research commented: “India’s renewable energy pipeline continues to grow, but the pace of grid expansion will play an important role in determining how quickly new projects can come online. As transmission constraints become more visible across the market, developers, investors and lenders need a clearer understanding of where these risks exist so they can make more informed decisions and deploy capital with greater confidence.”
Complex grid conditions
Vijay CS, Research Lead, India at Aurora Energy Research, added, “Rajasthan’s rapid renewable energy growth has created increasingly complex grid conditions. Detailed modelling at node level provides a clearer picture of where curtailment risk is emerging and how local grid conditions could influence project performance.”
Featured photograph (source: Adani Energy Solutions Ltd) is for representation only